Retention Strategy
Ecommerce Subscription Marketing: How Email & SMS Should Actually Work
Subscription brands should not run retention marketing like ordinary one-time-purchase ecommerce brands. Once somebody becomes a subscriber, the job of email changes.
You are no longer trying to convince that customer to place another order every week. The recurring order is already scheduled. The job becomes:
- help them use the product;
- help them get the expected result;
- reinforce the value of staying;
- give them flexibility when life gets in the way;
- reduce preventable cancellations;
- create relevant cross-sell opportunities;
- make the subscription feel worth keeping.
That shift sounds obvious. But a lot of subscription brands still run exactly the same campaigns, flows and reporting they would use for a normal ecommerce store. That can inflate performance numbers and, in the worst cases, actively create churn.
By Emiel Dingemans, Founder of Magicianly
The Biggest Subscription Marketing Mistake
The mistake is treating every customer like they still need to place an order.
Imagine somebody already receives the same product every 30 days. Then every week you send them: buy this product, get 20% off this product, flash sale on this product, don't miss this product, last chance to order this product.
They are already buying it. At best, the messages are irrelevant. At worst, you remind them:
Oh yeah. I have a subscription I could cancel.
That is why one of the biggest strategic shifts we make for subscription brands is this: send less generic promotional content to active subscribers and use more of the promotional pressure on people who are not subscribed.
Start by Separating Customer States
Do not build one giant "customers" segment. At minimum, think about four states.
- 1. Active subscribers
- These people already have recurring revenue scheduled. The primary goal is to retain and expand the relationship.
- 2. One-time buyers
- These people bought the product but have not committed to recurring delivery. The primary goal is to create the second purchase or convert them into a subscription.
- 3. Cancelled or churned subscribers
- These customers previously saw enough value to subscribe, then something changed. The primary goal is to understand the reason and reactivate where appropriate.
- 4. Prospects and non-buyers
- These people have not purchased yet. The primary goal is to create the first purchase.
Those are four completely different jobs. They should not receive the exact same lifecycle messaging.
Subscription Attribution Can Be Misleading
This is one of the most important technical issues in subscription retention. A recurring subscription rebill can occur after somebody receives or opens an email. A platform can then attribute that rebill to email because the purchase happened inside the attribution window.
But the subscription was already scheduled. The email may have had nothing to do with the charge.
Rebill revenue is not automatically email-driven revenue.
That distinction matters because otherwise:
- campaigns look more profitable than they are;
- flows look stronger than they are;
- the brand overestimates the impact of promotional email;
- churn gets ignored;
- teams optimize the wrong metrics.
This is one of the reasons we push subscription brands toward the retention metrics that describe customer behavior rather than platform-attributed revenue.
The Subscription Metrics We Care About
For subscription brands, we want to see metrics such as:
| Metric | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Subscription Started | How many new subscriptions were created |
| Subscription Cancelled | How many product subscriptions were lost |
| Net Subscription Growth | Starts minus cancellations |
| Churn Rate | The percentage of subscribers leaving |
| Cohort Retention | How long subscription cohorts remain active |
| Time to Cancellation | When churn happens in the lifecycle |
| Skip / Delay Behavior | Whether customers need more flexibility |
| Reactivation | Whether churned subscribers return |
For a Recharge setup, events such as Subscription Started, Subscription Cancelled and Order Upcoming can also be passed into Klaviyo and used as flow triggers. See Recharge metrics in Klaviyo.
Separate Rebill Revenue From Real New Revenue
For subscription accounts using Shopify, Recharge and Klaviyo, we often want a cleaner revenue metric than the default Placed Order view. The exact implementation depends on the integration and event properties available in the specific account.
But conceptually we want to separate new, non-recurring revenue from automatic subscription rebills.
For Recharge implementations, one approach is to create a custom metric that excludes recurring orders identified as subscription-contract revenue and separately includes genuine new subscription starts.
Do not blindly copy event-property names between accounts. Always verify:
- the subscription platform;
- the Shopify implementation;
- the actual event payload;
- the property used to identify recurring orders.
Do not optimize retention based on revenue the customer was already contractually scheduled to spend.
Flow 1: Subscriber Onboarding
The first days after a new subscription are critical. The customer has committed, but they are not loyal yet. They may still be thinking:
- did I make the right choice?
- how do I use this properly?
- when should I expect results?
- did I buy too much?
- should I cancel before the next charge?
The onboarding flow should remove those doubts. Useful content can include:
- how to use the product;
- expected timeline;
- usage frequency;
- common mistakes;
- FAQs;
- how to get the best result;
- habit-building content;
- social proof from customers with similar goals;
- customer support access;
- what happens before the next order.
For consumables, this is especially important. If the customer does not use the product consistently, they do not experience the benefit. If they do not experience the benefit, retention becomes much harder.
Build Habit Before You Push More Product
Subscription marketing often becomes too commercial too quickly. The brand sees a subscriber and immediately thinks "what else can we sell them?" Sometimes the better question is whether they have actually succeeded with the thing they already bought.
An onboarding sequence should make the existing purchase easier to use and easier to value. Only then do cross-sells become more natural.
A useful check-in can ask whether the customer is experiencing the expected early benefit. Their response can help identify:
- customers who are progressing;
- customers who need education;
- customers who need more time;
- customers who may be at risk of churn.
That is much more useful than waiting until they click "Cancel."
Flow 2: The Upcoming Order or Billing Reminder
For many subscription brands, this is one of the highest-leverage emails in the entire retention program. Unfortunately, the default version often reads like a warning from a bank:
You are about to be charged. Manage your subscription here.
It reminds the customer about money leaving their account and puts a big subscription-management button directly in front of them.
We prefer to treat the upcoming-order message as part of the customer experience. The email can:
- tell them what is coming;
- reinforce why they subscribed;
- remind them of subscriber benefits;
- show the upcoming products dynamically;
- allow them to skip;
- allow them to delay;
- allow them to change frequency;
- offer a relevant add-on;
- make subscription management easy.
Recharge itself supports upcoming-order flows with actions such as delay and cross-sell, and its quick actions can support skip, delay and other changes. See the Recharge Upcoming Order email.
Do Not Hide Cancellation
Retention is not about trapping customers. Make alternatives like skip, delay or frequency changes prominent when they genuinely solve the customer's problem. But cancellation should remain accessible and compliant.
Do not use dark patterns. Do not make somebody fight through a maze because they want to leave.
Save subscriptions when the customer's actual problem has a better solution than cancellation.
"I have too much product" is usually better solved by skipping the next order than by cancelling forever. Recharge explicitly supports skip and delay options in cancellation and cancellation-prevention flows.
A Real Billing Reminder Example
We have seen how large the effect of this single email can be. In one subscription account, changing the billing-reminder experience helped move cancellation associated with that reminder from roughly 8 to 9% to below 6%.
That does not mean every brand will see the same result. It does show why this email deserves much more attention than the default platform template usually receives.
One lifecycle message can sit directly in front of a major churn event. Treat it accordingly.
Flow 3: Convert One-Time Buyers Into Subscribers
A one-time buyer already did the hardest part. They trusted the brand enough to purchase. Now the subscription argument can become much more relevant, because they are actually using the product.
A strong post-purchase flow can focus on consistency, convenience, never running out, savings, expected usage cycle, replenishment timing and the customer's actual product experience.
That is different from shouting "subscribe and save!" before the person has even used the product. Now the value proposition has context.
Flow 4: Subscriber Winback
A cancelled subscriber is not the same as a random prospect. They already:
- knew the brand;
- bought the product;
- signed up for recurring delivery;
- saw enough value to commit.
The reason they left matters. A winback strategy should ideally use the cancellation reason.
- Too much product
- Offer a delay, a lower frequency or a smaller quantity.
- Too expensive
- Potentially offer a lower tier, a temporary incentive, better bundle economics or stronger value reinforcement.
- Not using it enough
- Focus on usage, habit, education and product fit.
- Didn't see results
- Focus on correct usage, expectations, support and an alternative product where relevant.
"Here's 20% off" is not a churn strategy. It is one possible tool.
Campaign Strategy for Active Subscribers
Active subscribers should not automatically receive every normal ecommerce campaign. Before including them, ask whether this campaign creates value for an existing subscriber.
Useful subscriber campaign content can include:
- education;
- product usage;
- new complementary products;
- subscriber-only access;
- community content;
- relevant brand updates;
- VIP moments;
- add-ons to the next shipment.
Less useful:
- repeated discount campaigns for the product they already receive;
- constant "buy now" messaging;
- promotions that make the subscriber realize non-subscribers got a better deal;
- generic acquisition-focused content.
The default should not be "exclude subscribers from everything." It should be: do not send active subscribers campaigns that make no sense for their customer state.
Use Quick Actions Where Possible
One of the best subscription experiences is letting a customer make a useful change without navigating through a complicated portal. Depending on the subscription platform, quick actions can support things like:
- add an item;
- skip an order;
- delay an order;
- swap products;
- change timing;
- reactivate.
Recharge Quick Actions can be used in Klaviyo flows for several of these actions. That can improve the customer experience, because the subscriber can solve the immediate problem with fewer steps.
How SMS Should Work for Subscription Brands
SMS can be useful because some subscription moments genuinely are time-sensitive: an upcoming-order reminder, a payment issue, a delivery change, an important subscription update or a quick order-management action.
But consent still matters. Do not assume a subscriber automatically consented to promotional SMS because they purchased a subscription, and do not use SMS to repeatedly push unrelated products simply because the customer is valuable. Our SMS best practices apply here too.
The message should help the subscriber manage or improve the relationship.
What About Recharge, Loop, Skio and Other Platforms?
The strategy is platform-independent. The implementation is not.
Different subscription tools expose different:
- events;
- profile properties;
- cancellation data;
- subscription states;
- quick actions;
- integration methods.
Recharge exposes Klaviyo events including subscription starts, cancellations and upcoming orders. Loop also exposes events for states such as cancelled, delayed, paused, reactivated, upcoming orders and skipped orders.
Your lifecycle strategy should use the cleanest customer-state data your subscription platform provides. Do not force ordinary Shopify order events to do a job they were never designed to do.
The Subscription Retention Dashboard We Would Build
At a high level, we would want to know:
- Acquisition
- How many new subscriptions started?
- Churn
- How many subscriptions were cancelled?
- Net growth
- Starts minus cancellations.
- Cohort retention
- What percentage of each subscription cohort is still active over time?
- Cancellation timing
- Where are the major churn spikes?
- Cancellation reason
- Why are customers leaving?
- Order management
- How often do people skip, pause or delay?
- Reactivation
- How many cancelled subscribers return?
Then connect email and SMS activity to those outcomes. That gives a much better view than a single attributed-revenue number for the month.
The Core Subscription Marketing Principle
For a normal ecommerce prospect, the job of retention marketing may be to get the customer to buy. For a subscriber, the job becomes something else:
Make staying more valuable than leaving.
That requires a different message, a different lifecycle, different reporting, different segmentation and often less promotional pressure.
Subscription email should not simply create more attributed revenue. It should improve the health of the subscription program itself.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is ecommerce subscription marketing?
Ecommerce subscription marketing is the lifecycle strategy used to acquire, onboard, retain and reactivate customers who purchase products on a recurring subscription.
Should active subscribers receive normal marketing emails?
Sometimes, but not automatically. Send campaigns when the content is relevant to an active subscriber. Avoid repeatedly promoting or discounting products they already receive.
What are the most important subscription email flows?
Important flows include subscriber onboarding, upcoming-order or billing reminders, one-time-buyer-to-subscription sequences, cancellation and churn prevention, and subscriber winback.
How can email reduce subscription churn?
Email can improve product usage, set expectations, identify problems early, remind subscribers of value and provide alternatives such as skip or delay when cancellation is not necessary.
What subscription metrics should ecommerce brands track?
Useful metrics include subscriptions started, subscriptions cancelled, net subscription growth, churn rate, cohort retention, time to cancellation, skip and delay behavior, and reactivations.
Why can Klaviyo revenue be misleading for subscription brands?
Recurring rebills can occur within an attribution window even when the email did not cause the transaction. That can make attributed revenue look stronger than the actual incremental impact of email.
Should subscription brands use SMS?
Yes, when the message is useful and time-sensitive and the subscriber has the appropriate SMS consent. Upcoming-order or account-management moments can be good use cases.
Related Reading
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7 Ecommerce Retention Metrics That Actually MatterThe retention metrics we use to judge whether ecommerce growth is becoming more profitable and repeatable, rather than relying on email-attributed revenue alone.
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